Brexit, what happens next?

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geegee42

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Hi, I've been following with interest all the various debates on the fors and againsts staying or leaving, the various guessing on what would happen too expats like ourselves regarding right too stay, health care and a few other things, but with all the reasons put forward by the lets leave camp I've not heard anyone lay out what happens the day after if the vote is out, is this going to be the usual English lack of forward planning or is there actually a plan in place. If anyone has any idea of a plan I would appreciate it if they could actually let me know.

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oldminiman-10052272 1456587415

In the unlikely event of us voting out the word is that it will take at least I two years to sort out! some go as far as seven years. The latest media rumour is for a 2nd referendum to be on the cards after further negotiations following an out vote and more changes to treaties.  It is all unknown in reality.  


The only sure thing is that the pound has taken an unfair hammering because of the uncertainty.  Yesterday HSBC added more worry  perhaps scare by saying that the pound /euro could reach parity in the event of an out vote.


For those who's income comes from the UK they should already have seen an 11% shortfall on exchange since November and this could continue until after the vote.  Having said that the foreign exchange market is trying to limit these drops although reports from analysts seem to indicate that  it will drop before it rises again.  This uncertainty is also affecting the value of the pound against the U S dollar.


What ever your situation, this uncertainty is  making the exchange markets very jittery and parity, if achieved, will see a drop of 31% since Nov 2015 in exchange rates in real terms between the pound and the euro.


i believe that any losses will be rapidly recovered if the vote is to remain in the EU.

kate.fitch@orange.fr 1456587432

As I see it, at the moment it is very difficult for the leave the eu side to say how they see the situation after we have won the referendum to leave. We have had lots of scare stories from the stay in side but none of them holds much water.


To my mind, the eu needs to lay out, in simple, inunambiguous and truthfull language what  terms and conditions  it will impose when we vote to leave.  These t's &c's should be made known to the UK soon, in time to  allow useful debate.      We know how duplicitous the  heads of the various factions within the eu are  so the leave side should insist on knowing this.   The day after the referendum date was announced I heard F Hollande on channel France 24 giving a speech and his tone was not nice. So I expect a lot of the higher ups in the eu will make life very tough for Brit expats but that just shows what this eu club is really like to those who threaten to rock their gravy boat. I must remind myself to stay focused factual and polite, even if the other side can not do the same.

Fazabelle56 1456587967

No, theres no plan, we're just leaving and taking it day by day. That way we are free to decide who and how many people we allow into the country and who is eligible for healthcare and benefits. We can also implement our own laws and not be bound by EU rulings. We can also negotiate our own trade deals with whomever we wish, with countries whose economies are growing far faster than any in Europe. I keep hearing that we will lose trade by leaving the EU. Can anyone state a like for like product or service that an EU company purchases from the UK  that can be sourced cheaper?


I would'nt worry about being kicked out of France as ex pats put far far  more into the economy than they take out. The French don't really want the older houses that we spend fortunes renovating anyway. We employ tax paying artisans to do the work and when complete we happily paying taxes on them. We pay taxes on pensions and savings and spend money in shops,bars and restaurants etc,etc  Why would you expel your best customers?

geegee42 1456588801

I personally don't think it's up to the EU to lay out T&Cs its up too the out camp too explain exactly what their plan is after exit, how it involves extracting itself from the EU, how it affects border controls, how it affects EU citizens already working in the EU, how it affects existing trade agreements with EU and other various foreign countries, it seems to me that it's far more trade going into the UK than leaving it. You can't just head off into the unknown without some sort of plan, that would be absolutely suicidal, someone must have some idea of a plan or its so scary no one dare mention it.

kate.fitch@orange.fr 1456591568

Ok, so we want to leave.   We are going to leave, our cases are packed and we are off. Thanks for the experience but we have had enough now, we'll have a beer with you if we should bump into you at a trade fair or where ever but now it's bye bye.


DO YOU THINK the eu would accept that!!  No, I don't think they will either, so it is up to them to say what they will try and impose on the UK after we have voted to leave, so the eu can either speak now or put up with it. I only hope that who ever is in charge of the UK after Junes vote and Cameron has taken up his new job as sucker up in chief to the eu, that they will stand up to the eu 's demands and tell them to get lost.

geegee42 1456591993

Oh well looks like plan is suck it and see.

Tryval 1456620176

If I could vote, which I can't, been away to long,  it would be stay, because outside the EU, the UK will have much less influence regarding European affairs, (affairs that could have significant impacts on the UK in general). and indeed World affairs as a VERY small Island with a very small voice, alone, on the E Atlantic seaboard


Economicaly, not sure the UK would be very worse off though.


But, having a Dad and Grandad who fought through two, European 'Inspired', World Wars. I think, as a concept,  the EU is worth much more consideration.


Immigration etc, which dominates the disscusion is (will prove to be) a relativly short time, relatively minor factor, which is given far too much prominence.


In the potentially much, much wider debate, the resulting decision will have profound effects for a long, long time.


 

geegee42 1456621439

The main problems I have with it all are, lack of exit plan, lack of information on what would happen to migrant workers already in the UK, lack of true benefits and loss figures, lack of any information on what laws have actually been made by unelected civil servants, its OK to say our people fought two wars to stay free but free from what?, lack of information on how the bank of England would deal with any rapid drop in the pound, it just doesn't seem as easy as vote out on a Thursday and life just carries on as normal, if this is what most out voters expect then I think they are in line for a big shock.

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